ANÁLISE COMPARATIVA DE METODOLOGIAS DE CÁLCULO PARA O VALOR DO TEMPO DE VIDA DO CLIENTE : ESTUDO DE CASO APLICADO A UMA GRANDE REDE DE SUPERMERCADOS
Análise estatística
Valor (Cliente)
Marketing
CLV
Statistical analysis
CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO
Abstract
More and more Brazilian retail supermarket enterprises search for information
coming from screened data to increase their marketing strategies. Traditionally,
heuristics based on recency, frequency and monetary value variables (RFM) are used
to determine which clients should receive relationship priority.
This paper addresses the production of forecasts of the customer lifetime value
(CLV) through distinctive methodologies, aiming the comparison between them. The
data analyzes refer to a group of 5025 clients, belonging to the same entrance harvest
(fidelity programming cadastre) from retail supermarket network. By means of the
CLV calculus it is possible to identify the best clients according to the individual
projection of the contribution margin.
Calculus proceedings were developed for application of the simplified
approach, suggested by Gupta and Lehmann (2003), in enterprises with noncontractual
setting with the client. The results were compared with usage of
stochastic models: BG/BB, to estimate the frequency of future buying months, and
Gama-Gama, for the prediction of the expected value to be spent per buying month.
It was observed that the prediction of values found for a 12 month period was
relatively comparable. Regarding the CLV estimates there were significant
differences.
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[Texto sem Formatação]
Document type
DissertaçãoFormat
application/pdf
Subject(s)
MarketingAnálise estatística
Valor (Cliente)
Marketing
CLV
Statistical analysis
CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO