Evolução do mercado de terras no Brasil: movimento dos preços e volume de negócios

Abstract

Real estate prices present different behaviors over time and space. In an attempt to find variables that determine the real estate prices, various papers have been issued. This subject has been raised during debates since the 50s in the USA. In Brazil, debates started to take place around the 70s. In this dissertation, following an introduction to the debate, we present an abstract of the existing bibliography on the subject, both from the USA and from Brazil. The bibliography on the subject will support the studies that we make afterwards. The following studies are about theoretical possibilities related to the land market. The merit of the study resides in its details, since it analyses the behavior of real estate prices in order to better observe through hand held lenses the general conclusions of the bibliography about the subject. We initiate this study by adopting the concept of supply and demand curves, and later developing a study of theoretical possibilities about the behavior of land prices. Afterwards, we perform empirical studies about data from the Brazilian land market. First, we analyze the land market with country-wide national data. We study the relationship between the average land prices in Brazil, the productive leasing of land and earnings coming from alternative investments. In a second part of the empirical studies, we perform a study with regional data. This study is made to capture the influence of land prices upon the trade volume, and is made with data from three towns in the State of São Paulo: Promissão, Cafelândia and Pirajuí. All of these towns are located near the town of Lins, which is 450 km distant from the State Capital. Our conclusions are based on both studies: that for real estate price behavior and that for trade volume behavior. We intend to capture, considering the trade volume, the agent s behavior with respect to each phase of real estate prices.