Avaliação do processo de estimativa e controle de custos de investimento (CAPEX) em projetos de desenvolvimento da produção de petróleo

Abstract

The main objective of this work is to analyze the current methodology to estimate and control investments (CAPEX) used by Petrobras in oil production development projects, more specifically theirs platforms. As such, a new analysis approach was tested leading to a proposal for the definition of control goals more adherent to the reality, reducing some existent gaps in the current estimate process and control of investment of development projects of the production. The research moves forward that objective through the study of the relationship between the estimate process and its associated risk. Every estimate process possesses a component of intrinsic risk which should be taken into consideration. Besides, all estimates suffer an inflationary process along the time between its elaboration and the moment of analysis. Therefore, this work proposes a simplified model to consider risks and inflationary influences in the estimate process and investment control. The hypothesis, investigated in this dissertation, is that the use those two main concepts in real scenery will improve the estimate process and the control of the results of the projects. That hypothesis was corroborated by the results which have shown that the use of the two concepts result in improved interpretations of the reality compared to the present situation.